Three Good things are happening
1) Prce of Crude oil is falling - Has come to $40 from $147
2) Rupee is appreciating - Has come to Rs.47 from recent high of above Rs.50
3) Inflation is falling
If this trend continues and Crude falls to below $30 per barrel levels and Rupee appriciates upto Rs.40 against dollar due to which Inflation goes below 3% which ultimately makes RBI getting the interest rates on Fixed Deposits upto 7.5 to 8% and Lending rates upto 9 to 11% then expect the economy to start recovering.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Market View on 13th Nov. 2008
As mentioned on 18th Oct. 2008 that market is into making the bottom, The level of 8799 zone that I expected to be as the weekly low actually became the last lowest weekly close at 8701 for sensex. Sensex touched the intraday low of 7697 but closed the same week at 9788 which again was very close to my expectation of 9779 for the week in which the market touches the lowest point.
As per my analysis the market has made the bottom and now market should move towards 12500 zone from where a strong corrective wave can re-start and if this wave is not able to take the market below the recent low of 7697 then it will be a confirmation that market has made the bottom and the next big up move has started.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Market View 18th Oct. 2008
Sensex WEEKLY close 9975 on 17th Oct. 2008. It is very close to 9779 the worst case scenario as described in my market view given on 15th Jul 2008. In my opinion the market has either already made a bottom or is very close to making a bottom. My view is that 8799 the June 2006 low should be the bottom zone for the sensex with a weekly closing figure of 9779. I would advise start of buying from present levels.
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Daily Commentry 26th Jul 2008
As mentioned in 23rd Jul 2008 Daily Commentry that above 14700 can be a trap and trigger for the fall can come from US Markets i.e. DOW starting to fall, the same has happened and sensex after making high of 15130 has closed at 14275 on 25th Jul 2008.
Our markets continue to be in total sink with Global clues specifically coming from movements in DOW. There are certain individual stocks in sectors like Banking, Power and Oil and Gas which are showing that a bottom is in place and seems to be attractive buy at these levels.
It is very important to understand the direction of the market before making a trading or investment call and my View on Market is that it has not yet confirmed that it is out of bear grip. Wait and watch the direction of the market as individual stocks tend to move with the market, if the market falls than 90% stocks start to fall and when market moves up then 70% stocks start moving up. The fear of negative clues from US markets still continues and further more downside on US markets is very much possible which can take our markets further down.
Our markets continue to be in total sink with Global clues specifically coming from movements in DOW. There are certain individual stocks in sectors like Banking, Power and Oil and Gas which are showing that a bottom is in place and seems to be attractive buy at these levels.
It is very important to understand the direction of the market before making a trading or investment call and my View on Market is that it has not yet confirmed that it is out of bear grip. Wait and watch the direction of the market as individual stocks tend to move with the market, if the market falls than 90% stocks start to fall and when market moves up then 70% stocks start moving up. The fear of negative clues from US markets still continues and further more downside on US markets is very much possible which can take our markets further down.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Crude Oil 23rd Jul 2008
I am not a regular follower of crude and my views on crude oil should be read in the same light. Today i.e. on 23rd July Crude is trading at 128 My view on Crude is that Crude can come down to touch 119 levels. The Level of 119 should act as a strong rebound area for crude from where crude can once again start its upward journey.
Daily Commentry 23rd Jul 2008
While I am writing the market is at 14700 levels up about 600 points as on 23rd July 2008. The market has achieved the rally target of 14700 as mentioned by me on Tuesday July 15th in Daily Commentry. Now, I expect that any further move can be a trap thus one should start booking profits as Market is in a Bear phase. The trigger for the fall this time can come from the US markets with Dow starting to fall.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Daily Commentry 15th Jul 2008
Sensex close on Tuesday 15th July 08 at 12,676. Watchout for a up-side rally from this zone of 12,300 to 12,700. This rally can go upto 14,700.
Market View 15th Jul 2008
Market is in Bear phase and seems to have no floor. Market is inversely co-related with Crude. If Crude price continue to go up then below are the lower levels which sensex can touch.
Sensex - Lower Targets
1) 11889 - Likely
2) 9779 - Worst
3) 4738 - Disaster
Sensex - Lower Targets
1) 11889 - Likely
2) 9779 - Worst
3) 4738 - Disaster
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